In light of the ongoing geo-political and demographic changes taking place in the world, the constant modifications within the domain of mobility and new technologies, consultancy specialist Roland Berger has identified 10 trends within the international automotive sector:

 

There will be a drastic relocation of production capacities and sales towards Asia. A relocation to low wage countries is expected. In total, some 300,000 jobs are at risk in Europe.

 

Segments A and B are set to continue to grow massively across the world. At the same time cheap cars, which are already very popular, will continue to meet the needs of a proportion of the population by enabling them to move around at low cost.

 

Amongst the young in particular, the car is beginning to lose its pole position. The ratio of cars is diminishing in the large cities and by 2025 this trend will no longer be limited to industrialised countries.

 

The most optimistic forecasts suggest that in 2025, 10% of all cars sold will be electric, 40% will be hybrid, with the remaining 50% still using diesel or petrol internal combustion engines.

 

In 2025, the vast majority of vehicles will be permanently connected, sending and receiving information. Connectivity will have become an essential feature. However, intelligent solutions aiming to regulate traffic and avoid congestion will not be developed before 2025.

 

The dominant players will have to face up to low cost competition, to technological challenges, and to the emergence of new economic models. Ecological mobility systems such as carpooling and car sharing will have to be taken very seriously in 2025.

  

Those countries with an aging population will be lacking in engineers and specialists. OEM’s and OES’s will not be able to sufficiently expand their skills base in R&D, particularly in the areas of science, technology and engineering. 

 

The best performing global players will be less and less centralised. They will look more like global players but with local activities. In 2025, these players will have numerous decentralised operational units which will be able to adapt rapidly to specific local needs.

 

It will be imperative that the automobile sector open itself up and learn from other sectors. Only the most flexible of players will be able to remain competitive.  

Whilst consolidation is set to continue for OES’s, the number of OEM’s will rise again. New players, essentially from other sectors, will make an appearance.

 

Based on these results, Roland Berger has developed 3 scenarios which describe what the market may look like in 2025:

 

According to this scenario, a whole range of accessories will be developed and will enable users to be permanently connected to the internet during their journey.

Within this scenario, purchasing power will have noticeably diminished due to tax rises, inflation and an increase in lower salaries. Cars will therefore become more affordable and the money which is currently set aside for them will be used for other things, often more important than transport.

 

According to this scenario, consumer behaviour will be heavily influenced by legislation and taxes, and also by a general increase of awareness regarding sustainability.

 

Whichever scenario comes to the fore, the most important factor for automobile manufacturers will be to remain open and become ever more flexible.