Analysis
30 Sep 16

SUVs dominate and EVs rise at Paris Motor Show

Prior to the Paris Motor Show, open to the public from October 1st, JATO Dynamics and LMC Automotive have produced a segment analysis and forecast of the Show's new launches. Taken together, the new models launched at Paris present a good overview of the industry's priorities and capabilities, and of the direction of the market as a whole. In short, SUV and EV launches in particular will be closely watched, but the great number of launches in all segments point to a dynamic future – as do rising sales figures. Some key findings. 

→ Despite steadily growing car sales, the European car market will exceed pre-crisis volume only by 2020. But the market itself has changed: consumers have higher and more varied demands, and manufacturers are better at responding to them quickly. 

→ Total registrations in the first eight months have gone up from 9.38 million to 10.11 million. Interesting market development: YTD sales figures show SUVs are now the biggest segment (26% vs. 21% YTD '15), overtaking the C segment (20% vs. 22%) and the B segment (20% vs. 21%). All other segments are also losing ground slightly, or maintaining a status quo. 

→ The re-launched Suzuki Ignis will be one of the highlights in the A segment (City-Cars): by mixing in SUV design hints, it looks a bit like a boxy Japanese kei car. Following the success of its Celerio and using its experience in Japan and India, Suzuki aims to gain market share in the European A segment – which overall is predicted to stagnate over the next four years. 

→ The B segment (subcompacts) has also been declining in recent years. Paris will see a few attempts at reviving its fortunes: the third-generation Citroën C3 and the fourth-generation Kia Rio. They will face stiff competition from two sides: direct rivals such as the VW Polo and Toyota Yaris; and B-SUVs. 

→ The C segment (Compacts) will see significant updates for the Hyundai i30 and Honda Civic, aiming to eat away at the VW Golf's dominance of this segment – a difficult, but not impossible task, as previously shown by the success of the new Opel/Vauxhall Astra and Peugeot 308.

→ The launch of the second-generation Audi A5, to rival the BMW 4-Series, will continue to shake up the D segment (Premium Midsize), previously energised by the introduction of the new Audi A4, Jaguar XE and Alfa Romeo Giulia.  

→ As one of the industry's fastest-growing segments, the C-SUV segment (Compact SUVs) will be a major focus at Paris. And one of its most significant launches will be the Peugeot 3008 – a model previously positioned as an MPV, but now retooled as an SUV, to rival the Nissan Qashqai and Renault Kadjar. 

→ The much smaller D-SUV segment (Mainstream Midsize SUVs) sees three launches: the Skoda Kodiaq, the Peugeot 5008 and the Renault Koleos. They will compete with well-established brands such as Jeep and Nissan. 

→ In the tiny but glamorous Supercar segment, all eyes will be on the Ferrari Laferrari. The Italian manufacturer is a key player in this segment, in which the average unit price is €150,000. But Mercedes is also expanding its offer, with the new AMG GT Roadster – a rival to the Porsche 911 Cabriolet.

→ The EV and Hybrid segment now represents 3% of the overall new car market, and is growing fast: up 27% over the first half of last year to 231,300 units, of which in H1 2016 almost 43,700 units were pure electric (+8.2%), and 187,600 units were Hybrid and Fuel Cell (+31.9%). The long-range, affordably-priced Opel Ampera-e (pictured) will be a significant launch in this category at Paris.

Image: Opel

Authored by: Frank Jacobs