Diesel drop threatens EU's CO2 gains

Demand for diesel is declining so much in Germany that the country is likely to have its first rise in average annual CO2 output by its new-car fleet since 1997, says VDIK, the German car importers association.

The diesel penetration rate in Germany has dropped from nearly half of new-car sales recently to no more than 41% last March. That drop is due to scandals and scares – Dieselgate and the resulting wave of cities banning heavily-polluting vehicles, often including diesels. 

VDIK said the average was 127.6 grams of CO per km for January to May this year, versus 127.0 g/km for the same period last year. If this trend continues in the second half of this year, 2017 will have a higher average than 2016.

This would confirm the concern voiced by many OEMs that sharp reductions in diesel sales would be compensated by petrol cars, thus leading to a reversal of the gains in CO2 emissions reduction – the EU target is 95g/km from 2020.

Overall CO2 reduction across the EU had already slowed to 1.4 g/km last year, due in large part to the slowing sales of diesels, which are up to 20% more fuel-efficient than petrol cars, and the rising popularity of SUVs. 

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