RVs to diverge across Europe, predicts Autovista

In 2017, residual values (RVs) will fall by 1% in the UK, flatline in Germany and Spain, and rise by 1% in France and 3% in Italy.

So says Autovista Intelligence in its Residual Value Outlook 2017. According to the analysts, three years of consistent rises in new-car sales are putting pressure on RVs across Europe, but the picture they paint is one of divergent national markets.  

Three of the Big Five markets – France, Germany and the UK – have finally equalled or surpassed their pre-recession new-car sales peaks in 2016. As a result, high volumes of used cars will hit all three markets from 2017 to 2019. This will put pressure on RVs. In the UK, uncertainty about Brexit will exacerbate the pressure.

Upcoming political events with potential repercussions for the remarketing industry include the presidential elections in France, where right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen looks likely to make it to the second round in early May. 

If she is elected, it is possible that she will dismantle the policies that have been put in place to discourage diesel, if it can help French automakers. Barring that, Autovista predicts diesel will remain under pressure, and as a consequence petrol-car RVs are expected to outperform diesel RVs across most of the Big Five markets. The exception is Italy, where the positive public perception of diesel is yet to turn – and diesel RVs could still rise.

Residual values for alternative-fuel vehicles could increase faster than the market average, especially in France and Spain, where growth between now and 2019 is expected to average between 2% and 4% annually – with volume remaining low. 

After strong increases over the past few years, Spanish RVs will stabilise over the next three years, Autovista expects. This is due in large part to the expiration of the PIVE scrappage scheme.

Image: Alexrk2, CC BY-SA 3.0