Self-driving: from hands-on to eyes-off in 5 steps
Nobody questions that autonomous driving is coming. Both car makers and non-automotive giants are investing billions in R&D. However, opinions diverge as to the speed at which A.I. and sophisticated hardware will grab the wheel. Experts like Sven Gábor Jánszky from 2b Ahead Think Tank and Lyft CEO John Zimmer believe that by 2025, cars and customers will be ready to go all-out in the autonomous mobility scene.
The consequences for the car industry, the taxi business and even public transport will be tremendous, as self-driving goes hand in hand with the demise of private ownership. Mobility becoming a pay-per-use service and very cheap is the general assumption. This probably sounds like music to the fleet manager’s ears. But there is another advantage for corporate mobility - one that is just around the corner.
In fact, between today and 2025, vehicles are likely to evolve towards autonomous driving and indeed other business models in different steps, integrating more and more driver assistance systems. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) identifies six levels of autonomy:
0. No automation: the driver performs all driving tasks all the time, possibly helped by warning or intervention systems. E.g. blind spot warning, collision warning
1. Assisted driving: either steering or acceleration/deceleration is performed by a driver assistance system, but not in all circumstances, using information about the driving environment, with the expectation that the human driver performs all remaining aspects. This is the level reached by several modern cars today. E.g. Adaptive cruise control
2. Partial automation: both steering and acceleration/deceleration is performed by one or more driver assistance systems, but not under all circumstances, using information about the driving environment, with the expectation that the human driver performs all remaining aspects. You could argue that Tesla’s Autopilot and the latest Audi A8 are level 2, as they can overtake a vehicle on the motorway by themselves.
3. Conditional automation: this is the biggest leap, as – under certain conditions – all aspects of driving are performed by the car, which monitors the environment entirely, with the expectation that the human driver will respond appropriately to a request to intervene. Expected launch: 2018.
4. High automation: the same as above, but with the expectation that the human driver does not respond appropriately to a request to intervene. Expected launch: 2021.
5. Full automation: the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of driving under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver. Projected introduction: 2025.
When driving becomes productive
These levels, by the way, have no legal or normative value – they are merely descriptive. The biggest leap is actually between level 2 and level 3, or between “hands off/eyes on” and “hands off/eyes off”, as this is when the entire driving task is handed over from driver to system, liberating precious time for the person behind the wheel during tedious motorway driving and in traffic jams.
By 2025, the wheel is likely to disappear, allowing designers to create interiors that can be adapted to each user individually and to changing usage situations whilst driving from A to B. But that is a different story.
Picture copyright: BMW, 2017
