12 Jan 18

Half of all cars 'shared' by 2040

By 2040, half of all cars in the Netherlands will be shared cars operating under the Mobility as a Service (MaaS) principle. That's the conclusion of KPMG's Global Automotive Executive Survey 2018. 

Surveying 1,000 corporate executives and 2,500 consumers, KPMG forecast that car-sharing in its various forms will grow rapidly over the next two decades, to rival private ownership as the dominant form of vehicle usage by 2040. 

People and cargo
With MaaS as the guiding principle, shared cars will make up nearly 50% of the total market. The rise of shared mobility will also erase the distinction between the transport of people and of cargo, KPMG partner Loek Kramer told Fleet & Mobility magazine: “Autonomous vehicles can be used throughout the day, and don't need to remain stationary for most of the day”.  

And therein lies the great opportunity offered by autonomous vehicles – to dramatically increase vehicle usage: “We'll witness the birth of a new trend, mobi-listics. We're already seeing Uber delivering food. Thanks to shared autonomous vehicles, the distinction between mobility and logistics will disappear completely”. 

Vehicle usage

Of those surveyed, 43% said they would not want to own a car anymore by 2025, mostly because of the environment, added to which comes the burden of car ownership in urban areas – a trend that can only increase as urbanisation itself becomes ever more widespread. 

But there is also a drawback to the alternative. Sharing a car risks being less of a 'premium' experience than owning one. The KPMG report suggests other ways of generating a premium experience: by relating the sharing concept to private parking spaces, perhaps even private streets, or collaborations with high-end restaurants or supermarkets.

Future powertrains
KPMG not only projected the future of ownership versus usage, but also of the powertrains of 2040. By that time, according to the report, about a quarter of all cars will be electric, an equal share will be powered by hydrogen, and another quarter will still run on a traditional combustion engine. 

The various types of motorisation will co-exist, due in large part to the fact that electric cars remain expensive in ticket price, and the charging infrastructure will remain limited. 

16% to 5%
Still, the shift is remarkable, considering combustion-engine cars currently still occupy more than 90% of the market in the Netherlands. One of the consequences of electrification is that by 2030, less than 5% of all cars globally will still be built in Western Europe (the current share is 16%). A large part of the production will move to China, which is investing heavily in battery technology. 

This makes sense, as the Chinese government demands that by 2020, 12.5% of all cars sold in the country will have to be electric. The European Commission has as yet not set a similar target for electrification. 

Made in China
Consequently, the European manufacturers are quite far behind their Chinese competitors when it comes to EVs. KPMG predicts that a lot of the electric cars we will be driving by 2040 will be made in China.

Finally, KPMG predicts that the automotive market will continue growing, from 101 million units in 2020 to 140 million by 2040. Thanks to the continued growth, diesel will remain a viable technology, especially for larger vehicle models.  

Authored by: Frank Jacobs