Looking ahead at 2020

1. Financial Models – Steven Schoefs & Yves Helven

2020 is expected to be pretty similar to 2019: across Europe the preference for full service closed-end leasing is still increasing in those countries that offer mature services. A trend that will continue in the upcoming years due to the changing consumer behaviour where the usage of an asset instead of owning the asset becomes more popular, not only in B2B but also in B2C with private lease. Linked to this trend we expect to see a growing convergence of long term leasing and short term renting solutions, driven by the interest from both customers and suppliers in flexible mobility services. Nevertheless, more international corporate clients are, behind the screens, scrutinizing the pros and cons of leasing or, to be more specific, of their leasing providers. Since the capital part of operational leasing is on balance, rather than off balance in the pre-IRFS period, and cheaper money is available, some clients are looking for alternatives with lease versus buy comparisons, and unbundled services.

2. Shared Mobility – Fien Van den Steen

2020 will see a reinforcement of the current trends in shared mobility: electrification, combination, activation, fluctuation and regulation. Moreover, most players will continue to move out of their niche and expand their mobility offering towards mobility-as-a-service rather than one single mobility solution, while governments will create frameworks to both stimulate and regulate these trends.

3. New Energies – Dieter Quartier

To comply with the 95g/km target OEMs will launch a multitude of new plug-in hybrid and all-electric models. Low-to-zero emission driving will become accessible to much more company car drivers and offer a more compelling TCO than ever. To facilitate EV adoption, both carmakers and leasing companies will further develop supporting services, from driver profiling to infrastructure and add-on mobility.

4. Last Mile – Benjamin Uyttebroeck

Last mile deliveries are made more complex by access restrictions in cities and by consumers that aren’t at home when the courier knocks at their door. Electric vans and electrically assisted cargo bikes, often combined with hubs, are popping up in more and more places. A whole range of solutions are being rolled out for the second problem, like lockers that are accessible 24/7 or solutions to deliver parcels in the car boot.

5. Connected – Alison Pittaway

By 2023, over 76 million cars worldwide will be connected and data will be the most valuable commodity in the fleet and transport sectors. The fight to own it will continue. More importantly, this data will unlock the business potential of shared mobility while benefiting society by reducing congestion, pollution and the burden of vehicle ownership. By introducing new players, fleet operation’s potential to be efficient and profitable will increase.

6. MaaS – Frank Jacobs

From 2020, MaaS will move beyond its pilot phase and beyond Europe, where most MaaS pilots are still concentrated – notably North America and East Asia. Growth will depend on the commitment of the various stakeholders to open data, which is crucial to make MaaS work. In 2020, MaaS will increasingly provide cities with ways to address congestion and pollution; and urban mobility users with options to choose modes of transport at modular levels of speed, price and ease.

7. Safety – Jonathan Manning

Beyond the standard fit of active safety technology, such as autonomous emergency braking in new cars and vans, businesses will soon have an even more powerful weapon to improve the safety of their drivers and vehicles – data. Connectivity will give fleets and insurers detailed information about drivers’ behaviour, hours and routes, identifying higher risks before accidents occur. How this data is collected, analysed and acted upon will define fleet safety.

8. Autonomous – Mark Sutcliffe

Autonomous vehicles will be a part of the future transport mix, but until concerns over legal liability, regulation, taxation, pollution and congestion are clarified, most European governments will remain cautious about embracing the idea of allowing thousands of private autonomous vehicles onto EU roads before 2025. However, safety-related partially autonomous systems such as Intelligent Speed Assistance and Autonomous Emergency Braking will become standard equipment on company cars and vans ahead of its mandatory introduction across the EU in 2022.

9. Remarketing – Dieter Quartier

The used car arena will be impacted by two major trends. First, the 95g/km target imposed by the EU means OEMs will be pushing EVs and PHEVs into the market. Not all markets will be “e-receptive” enough, leading to self-registrations and possibly a large zero-mileage EV offer. Second, the supply of young diesel vehicles has fallen dramatically whereas the demand is still there, causing positive price corrections on some markets.