Dataforce expands forecasts by fuel types

At the end of July, market data specialist Dataforce started offering new registration forecasts by fuel type in addition to existing market segment forecasts.

A decade after the first mass-produced electric vehicles entered the market, their classification as “alternative” no longer fits the significance of EVs in the market. They have become a fully fledged alternative and they have already surpassed other powertrains in some countries. By 2040, they will dominate the market in Europe.

Together with their Spanish colleagues from MSI Sistemas de Inteligencia de Mercado and the industry expert Detlef Borscheid, Dataforce has integrated a fuel type forecast into its market segment forecast. This forecast will consider long-term trends like technical progress in battery development and changes in the regulatory framework. In the medium term, government incentives and tax measures can also influence fuel choice. In the short term, factors such as pull-forward effects or production bottlenecks are taken into account.

At launch, forecasts are available for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands. Europe as a whole will be added in the second half of the year and various other countries will be added in 2022. The forecasts, which stretch five years into the future, break down the market channels into private, true fleet, short-term rental, manufacturer/dealer and the new addition of fuel type breakdown: petrol, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and CNG/LPG.

Below are some fuel-type forecasts Dataforce already published:

• The share of BEVs and PHEVs will continue to grow strongly in 2021 and 2022. As incentives reach a plateau and new model introductions dwindle once a range of EVs is available in every segment, there will be market saturation.
• Electrification gains momentum again by the middle of the decade. Economies of scale and further technical development will lower the costs of BEVs while Euro 7 implementation will add costs to combustion vehicles.
• Individual countries and sales channels can deviate from these trends, though. For electrification of rental vehicles to take off, for instance, public charging infrastructure needs to be more widely developed.

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